NPR examined the Trump administration’s latest sanctions campaign against Iran and whether heightened economic pressure can achieve U.S. objectives after months of conflict. The article explores the effectiveness of sanctions, Iran’s ability to withstand economic isolation, and the pivotal role China may play as a major purchaser of Iranian oil. Former government officials and sanctions experts weighed in on the challenges facing the administration as it seeks to increase pressure on Tehran while balancing broader geopolitical considerations.
Adam Szubin, Of Counsel at Covington and former Director of the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), discussed the implications of U.S.-China relations for the effectiveness of the sanctions campaign.
Adam observed that recent tensions between the United States and China appear to have eased following earlier disputes involving semiconductors and rare earth minerals. He suggested that both governments currently have incentives to maintain stability in the relationship, which could influence discussions regarding China’s continued purchases of Iranian oil and the extent to which the United States ultimately chooses to enforce secondary sanctions against Chinese entities.
Adam noted, “There has been something of a détente between the U.S. and China after some tit-for-tat where we saw semiconductors, rare earth minerals used in economic warfare.”
He added, “It seems like the Trump administration and the Chinese government want to see things quieter, and so we’re probably at a moment where there’s some hard discussions going on behind the scenes about how much China is willing to do without the U.S. following through on its threat.”
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