Latin America M&As: The Outlook for Countries

Latin America M&As: The Outlook for Countries

February 15, 2023, Latinvex

Gabriel Mesa and Gustavo Akkerman were featured in a Latinvex Q&A about their predictions on which sectors will drive Latin America M&A growth in 2023.

Gustavo commented on Brazil's M&A outlook, stating: "Brazil has been the biggest market for M&A in Latin America in the last few years and we expect that to continue. There is still a fair degree of uncertainty with respect to the new Lula administration’s approach to the economy, and whether the more orthodox or more heterodox voices will prevail. There have been mixed signals so far, but Lula faces important checks that may lead him to adopt a more pragmatic approach. Lula was elected with a razor-thin margin and will face a fraught base in Congress, not to mention a cabinet comprised of people from several different political and economic affiliations. This reality means that he may have little room to effect big or radical changes. While there may be some change in the flavor or nature of investments made in the country (for example, a greater focus on government-subsidized projects, concessions or public-private partnerships, as opposed to privatizations), we expect activity to remain stable."

Gustavo continued, stating, "In addition, Brazil is a big country with a diversified economy and vast  natural resources, so we should continue to see a steady volume of deals, despite what the government agenda may be. Brazil continues to be uniquely positioned for strong investor demand and new opportunities in energy, infrastructure, agribusiness, and green investment. The country also has a qualified workforce and a sophisticated consumer market, which should continue to drive growth in sectors like education, healthcare, finance, technology, and industrials."

Gabriel also spoke about his outlook for Mexico's M&A growth, saying: "We continue to see strong interest in Mexico, including in the technology, industrial and health care sectors. Its strategic location and sophisticated supply chains continue to attract investors, particularly in manufacturing. That said, political and regulatory uncertainty complicate deal-making in Mexico and we are watching the evolution of trade disputes under the USMCA. These disputes could threaten the stability of the agreement and have a negative impact on investor appetite for the country."

When asked about the outlook for M&A in key markets like Chile, Colombia, and Peru, Gabriel, said: "The three countries are experiencing significant political upheaval, which likely will cool M&A activity. We continue to see Chile as a leader in energy-related transactions, including in renewable sources like hydrogen. But uncertainty surrounding the new constitutional process is likely to have a negative impact on dealmaking. Colombia continues to be an attractive market in areas including technology, infrastructure, agribusiness, and energy. However, the Petro administration’s use of executive power, uncertainty surrounding energy policy, and healthcare, labor, pension, and mining reforms will likely have a cooling effect on M&A transactions in the country this year. We expect M&A levels in Peru to remain low, in part because of the country’s political crisis."