On Sunday, May 31, opposition candidate Abelardo De La Espriella won the first round of the Colombian presidential election with 43.74 percent of the vote. Senator Iván Cepeda, the candidate of governing party Pacto Histórico, came second with 40.90 percent. De La Espriella prevailed over center-right candidate Paloma Valencia, in line with a broader regional trend of traditional right-leaning candidates struggling against contenders running further to the right.
De La Espriella and Cepeda will face off in a runoff on Sunday, June 21. The incoming president will assume office on August 7 for a four-year term.
The choice before Colombians offers either continuity with the current administration’s policies, which favor a greater role for the state in the economy, including support for the “popular economy,” as well as the continuation of peace negotiations with armed groups, or a change to De La Espriella’s pro-market policies and more forceful security approach.
The outcome will shape Colombia’s policy trajectory over the next several years and have significant implications for businesses and investors operating in the country.
The election presents differing policy approaches with respect to the role of the state and the economic model, the handling of security challenges, and the U.S.-Colombia relationship.
1. The Economic Model
Senator Cepeda promises a “peaceful revolution” and a deepening of the current administration’s social transformation agenda. He supports an economic model that emphasizes a greater role for the state in shaping development and advocates unwinding the public-private partnership model established in the early 1990s, including in energy, utilities, healthcare, pensions, and infrastructure.
Senator Cepeda has indicated that he would seek to build on President Petro’s social policies, including extending labor-focused policies and supporting further increases in the minimum wage. He would also insist on President Petro’s structural transformation of the healthcare system, including to change the role of private sector participants.
His agenda also includes expanded social spending through subsidies for youth, older adults, and social leaders. He views agricultural production as an engine of development and has pledged to expand land reform.
Senator Cepeda’s approach to state intervention is aimed at strengthening the “popular economy,” defined as economic activities undertaken by individuals and communities historically excluded from the formal economy. Proposed measures include adjustments to government procurement requirements for goods, services, and infrastructure.
By contrast, De La Espriella supports more liberalized, market-oriented policies to build what he calls the “Miracle Fatherland.” He emphasizes private sector investment as the primary driver of economic growth and has stated an annual growth objective of approximately six percent.
De La Espriella has also proposed reducing the size of the state by 40 percent as part of a broader fiscal adjustment plan. He advocates a “great revolution of deregulation,” reductions in corporate tax rates, the elimination of the wealth tax, and increased activity in the oil and gas sector, as well as streamlining community consultations for energy transmission projects. He has also indicated that he would place greater emphasis on infrastructure development than the current administration.
In the healthcare sector, he has proposed increasing funding to address financing gaps and improve the delivery of key medicines within the first 90 days of his administration.
2. Approach to Security Challenges
Security remains a central issue and a significant concern for companies operating in the country. Violence has increased in the lead-up to the election, with reported increases in attacks and massacres attributed to criminal groups competing for territorial control and illegal economies. Criminal groups have grown by 23 percent in headcount in recent years and the armed forces have struggled to contain this expansion.
The current administration’s “Total Peace” policy has prioritized negotiations with a range of illegal armed groups. Senator Cepeda has indicated that he would continue this approach and situate security policy within a broader peace framework.
By contrast, De La Espriella has proposed ending the “Total Peace” policy, focusing instead on territorial control and more forceful security policies. He has also promised to build ten mega-jails.
3. The U.S.-Colombia Bilateral Relationship
The stakes are also high for the bilateral relationship with the United States. Public opinion underscores its importance, with recent polling indicating that 81.1 percent of Colombians believe the next president should maintain a positive relationship with Washington.
After a period of tension in 2025, the relationship appeared to stabilize following a meeting between Presidents Trump and Petro at the White House in February. The past year was marked by U.S. threats of tariffs and sanctions related to migration policy, the imposition of sanctions on President Petro, and the determination that Colombia had “failed demonstrably” to meet its counternarcotics commitments.
Cepeda has signaled his desire to pursue a pragmatic approach to the relationship, acknowledging policy differences with the Trump administration while emphasizing institutional stability. He has identified experienced diplomatic figures as potential contributors to managing the bilateral agenda. Even under this approach, policy differences on issues such as security, counternarcotics, and economic policy could become increasingly difficult to manage. Cepeda has called for changes in U.S. counternarcotics policy and has been critical of the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. Whether the Trump administration would respond positively to Cepeda’s bilateral agenda is unclear at best, but early signs have not been promising.
De La Espriella, a dual U.S.-Colombia citizen, supports a return to Colombia’s traditional alignment as a close U.S. partner in Latin America, including deeper security cooperation. He has vowed to eradicate thousands of hectares of coca crops, including through aerial aspersion with glyphosate, and strengthen judicial cooperation on extraditions. Following De La Espriella’s first-round victory, President Trump endorsed him and criticized Cepeda.
Over the past four years, Congress and the courts have blocked numerous legislative and regulatory initiatives proposed by President Petro. These institutions are likely to play a similar counterbalancing role irrespective of who is elected president and despite growing institutional tensions between the executive and the other branches of government.
In March, Colombians elected a new Congress for a four-year term beginning July 20. Although Cepeda’s party, Pacto Histórico, emerged as the largest bloc, it fell short of a majority. As a result, the next president will face a fragmented legislature and will need to build coalitions to advance legislation.
President Petro has appointed three of the five members of the board of the Bank of the Republic, Colombia’s central bank. The next president will appoint two of the members. If Senator Cepeda wins the presidency, a majority of the board would have been appointed by Pacto Histórico, a scenario that has raised concerns about the bank’s independence in setting monetary policy.
Similarly, the next president will be able to shape the composition of the Constitutional Court, Colombia’s highest court, which has been a key actor in enforcing constitutional limits. Four of its nine magistrates will be replaced during the 2026–2030 presidential term. Of these, one will be selected from a shortlist submitted by the president, while the others will come from shortlists submitted by the Supreme Court and the Council of State.
Taken together, these factors mean that the next president will operate within meaningful institutional constraints but will also have significant levers of influence. Recent experience suggests that this balance is likely to remain characterized by recurring tensions between the executive and other branches of government that will continue to test Colombian institutions.
The outcome of the June 21 elections in Colombia’s highly polarized political climate will have significant implications for virtually every commercial sector in Colombia. Senator Cepeda’s priorities will be to continue to strengthen and advance many of the regulatory policies that were favored by President Petro, ensuring that Colombia will remain a complex, if important market, for foreign investors. Conversely, a victory by De La Espriella will foreshadow an abrupt turn towards open markets and liberalization, but potentially be accompanied by a strong opposition and social disruption that will pose new challenges for the Colombian market. The two candidates are also likely to experience widely varying approaches from the Trump administration, as demonstrated by President Trump’s decision to weigh in on the race.
Covington’s team of experts will continue to monitor the presidential race and its implications for Colombia’s future trade and investment potential. If you have any questions concerning the materials discussed in this update, please contact the members of our Latin America Public Policy team.
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